The week ahead

Sorry, I have not been very assiduous lately. To my defense, I had logistical problems added to more pressing matters...

In any case, here is a quick heads-up. First on the economic front, we have a fairly quiet week ahead of us with fed minutes and GDP numbers... GDP numbers are expected to be stronger. This could make the balance tip to the bear side for the T-bonds. Secondly , on the credit/liquidity crisis side things are getting better. The Fed is continuing to add liquidity to the market through diverse means and several players are now actively buying bank papers. Finaly, credit indexes have stopped climbing and are actually going lower... Thirdly, about the prime market of interest here, people are coming back from vacation and this is adding liquidity to the market!

Right now, the T-bond seems to have clearly breached the 110-00 line. But beware, a couple of foreign long bonds look overextended to the bull side and in addition to that the stock market seems to be developping a new bullish channel... All of this, would tend to indicate that the short side should be advantaged... In the meantime, the 21 days moving average is holding like a rock.
Also, do not forget that we are in the roll week. We are going into the USZ7.